Reasons for Alai’s support of Ruto over Kalonzo in Raila’s absence

Kileleshwa Member of the County Assembly (MCA) Robert Alai suggests that the potential departure of opposition leader Raila Odinga from the political arena complicates the chances of Kalonzo Musyoka defeating President William Ruto in the 2027 presidential election race.

In a post on X, Alai, known for his controversial comments, claimed, without providing proof, that Mr. Odinga’s supporters have more confidence in President Ruto compared to Mr. Musyoka.

Alai’s remarks came hours after Uganda President Yoweri Museveni hosted both President Ruto and Mr. Odinga at his Kisozi farm in Western Uganda.

The three leaders later confirmed that the discussions centered around several issues, including Mr. Odinga’s bid to become the next chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC).

He stated, “Let me tell you with a lot of certainty. If Baba (read Raila Odinga) is not in the (presidential) race in 2027 and given the choice between Kalonzo and Ruto, ODM (Orange Democratic Movement) supporters would easily go for Ruto. ODM supporters would trust Ruto over Kalonzo ANY DAY.”

In an interview with NTV towards the end of 2023, Mr. Musyoka, the leader of the Wiper Democratic Movement, declared his intention to contest the presidency in 2027.

Mr. Musyoka further emphasized that supporting Mr. Odinga’s possible bid for the fourth time in 15 years was out of the question.

Subsequently, the issue of leadership within the Azimio la Umoja – One Kenya Alliance Movement has led to a tug of war over Mr. Odinga’s success in attaining the AUC position in 2025.

Despite the AUC term being four years, analysts point out that Mr. Odinga has the option to resign a year before the 2027 elections in Kenya to join the race.

Nevertheless, Ida Odinga, Mr. Odinga’s wife, has set her sights elsewhere.

At an event in Nyandiwa, Suba South, last week, she revealed her preference for nominated MP John Mbadi to succeed Mr. Odinga if his AUC appointment materializes.

“Baba has mentored many to take care of what he’s left behind as he goes to the AU. Mbadi, after all these years of mentorship, do you still need more training? Should I continue? That’s Baba’s heartbeat,” she said.